Episode 18
Retail Trends 2026: What Independent Retailers Must Get Right Next Year
Retail might be stabilising, but certainty still isn’t coming back.
Hi, I'm Clare Bailey, founder of Retail Champion.
In this episode of Retail Reckoning, I’m sharing my perspective on what retail in 2026 is really shaping up to look like. From cautious consumers and selective spending, to the changing role of the high street, loyalty, technology, and staffing, I break down what genuinely matters for independent retailers right now.
We look at why waiting for “normal” is holding businesses back, why emotional loyalty beats points schemes, and how independents can use their hyper-local knowledge to compete with bigger players. I also talk about where technology helps, where it distracts, and why getting the basics right will always matter more than chasing shiny tactics.
If you’re planning for 2026 and want a clear-eyed, practical view of what’s ahead, this episode will help you focus on what to prioritise and what to ignore.
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Transcript
I don't have a crystal ball, but I do have a front row seat to
Speaker:retail every day. So let's have a talk about what
Speaker:2026 might look like.
Speaker:I'm Claire Bailey, the retail champion, and if you're listening, chances are you've
Speaker:survived another peak season. The sales are rolling and the
Speaker:returns mountain is staring you in the face. Let's break
Speaker:it down. What's to watch, what matters and
Speaker:how do we make sure you don't get left behind?
Speaker:Retail reckoning. No space for
Speaker:dusty shelves. Retail
Speaker:reckoning owns the floor.
Speaker:So I want to start with the big picture and the generalized trading
Speaker:environment. I mean, first up,
Speaker:2026 is a year that retail has to stop waiting for
Speaker:certainty and start actually building momentum. Anyway.
Speaker:Winners won't be clinging onto the idea of that normal is coming back.
Speaker:There is no pre Covid world ever again. They'll just
Speaker:have to act fast, act faster than the
Speaker:competition and pivot with confidence. So I
Speaker:think two things are going to define the coming year. Cautious
Speaker:confidence from the consumer side and
Speaker:valuing of values, if that makes any sense. I'll
Speaker:explain later. Shoppers are still watching their wallets,
Speaker:but they are definitely upgrading selectively. And it's the small
Speaker:luxuries, the memorable experiences,
Speaker:and often with brands that they trust. There's also the
Speaker:importance of convenience in terms of efficient and
Speaker:frictionless experiences and the community. And
Speaker:convenience and community seem to be pretty much everything.
Speaker:If something isn't easy or it isn't local or
Speaker:it isn't enjoyable, it's going to be a struggle. So
Speaker:yeah, the economic and behavioral shifts of the last few years haven't
Speaker:disappeared. But the trading environment that I predict for
Speaker:2026 is one of selective spend, cautious
Speaker:consumers and high expectations as well.
Speaker:Definitely no room for failure
Speaker:leading on from that. And as I do a lot of work with local authorities
Speaker:for things like High street support, I want to focus a
Speaker:little bit on the high street backdrop and what support is genuinely
Speaker:needed. Zooming into the High street footfall is sort of
Speaker:stabilizing. Not everywhere, it's fair to say, but it's
Speaker:generally, as an overview, not looking as bad as it has been.
Speaker:Collision's really sticky. People are enjoying
Speaker:more going out in the local communities, it would appear, but
Speaker:vacancy rates of units are still a problem.
Speaker:I mean the thing is the High street and it has been for a long
Speaker:time, to be fair, it isn't pure retail anymore. It's much wider
Speaker:experiences, services, treats mixed together.
Speaker:I mean we want the butcher, the baker, but also
Speaker:a bank and a delivery collection point.
Speaker:And possibly if you're self employed, as many, many more
Speaker:people are freelancing and self employed these days, maybe a high street accountant,
Speaker:the solicitor. So everything has to be present,
Speaker:not just shopping. So all these places that are
Speaker:thriving in 2026 are giving people reason to leave the
Speaker:sofa, whether it be to get some important admin done, do
Speaker:the banking, go for a coffee with friends, have a blow dry
Speaker:or meet up with the preschoolers at a play centre to let them run off
Speaker:steam. It's simply somewhere to get stuff
Speaker:done or somewhere cozy to bump into friends or feel a bit
Speaker:pampered. It is very much more about feeling
Speaker:though, than it is about buying stuff.
Speaker:Services are another really interesting area, but I think
Speaker:that's something that often gets forgotten when we talk about the High Street.
Speaker:But the problem is, certainly from my experience, is that some
Speaker:councils and business improvement districts and so on are missing out on the
Speaker:basics. They need to provide clean, safe
Speaker:and accessible streets, well lit and so on, with
Speaker:sensible parking solutions and simplified
Speaker:licensing to allow businesses to trade and do what the
Speaker:local community want. The big infrastructure projects are great,
Speaker:but actually removing the barriers for traders, potentially providing
Speaker:practical learning that's delivered in a method by
Speaker:which they can adapt to their working hours and help to
Speaker:support them to also adapt to the changing trading environment.
Speaker:That's a quick win that really matters and that can be delivered immediately.
Speaker:It isn't sort of 15 years in the planning and the fundraising.
Speaker:Some success stories that I've worked with include Sheffield City
Speaker:Council and Gainsborough, which is part of West Lindsay District
Speaker:Council. And they've proven that through things like curated spaces,
Speaker:independent led business ecosystems and thoughtful
Speaker:investment. Not clutter, but coherence and things that
Speaker:land quickly can help the high streets thrive.
Speaker:But what that needs is both the retailers and the
Speaker:local support to do it, potentially just with the facilitation
Speaker:from the organizations such as the councils and Bids.
Speaker:So now I'm going to look at your strategy because we've got the big
Speaker:picture and the high street context, the trading environment.
Speaker:So what do retailers actually need to do first? I would
Speaker:say in the first instance, do not overcomplicate matters.
Speaker:Obviously your first priority is your range,
Speaker:your stock and your margin protection. Without that,
Speaker:what have you got? You need to back your winning products,
Speaker:ditch the dead legs and optimize your pricing.
Speaker:That goes without saying. Then service comes next.
Speaker:Staff who greet smile, they can sell,
Speaker:but they give a consultative sell whilst upselling
Speaker:confidently without being pushy. Then visibility.
Speaker:Google Business profile optimization Brilliant Signage on the
Speaker:shop front, beautifully done windows. If you nail these three
Speaker:topics, you're being a strong place to build for footfall and basket size.
Speaker:However, I'd put them in that order because what you don't want to do is
Speaker:become visible, bring people in only for them to discover that the
Speaker:range doesn't suit them, the pricing isn't aligned to their needs and the service is
Speaker:rubbish. So get the core basics right first.
Speaker:The offer, range, product lifecycle management, stock
Speaker:management, margin protection, pricing and promotions before
Speaker:you even bother to invest in service. Because until you know your
Speaker:range, you can't train the staff on how to sell the product anyway. And
Speaker:obviously a lot of that then comes down to your in store experience, the merchandising,
Speaker:the flow. And only when you feel ready to go to town and
Speaker:say, come and see us, we're awesome, should you focus on the
Speaker:visibility because otherwise it can be a double edged sword.
Speaker:The other thing, whilst talking strategy, a big mistake is
Speaker:waiting too long to see if a product performs when it's
Speaker:failing. Discounting too early. If a product
Speaker:hasn't met its full potential yet, chasing perhaps
Speaker:online strangers who engage with you on Facebook or your other
Speaker:social platforms, whilst potentially not paying true attention
Speaker:to your loyal locals. Sinking money into flashy
Speaker:new technology over the basic service and
Speaker:sales training that help the team to actually
Speaker:deliver the customer experience that you would prefer your customers to experience
Speaker:when you're not present to deliver it yourself. And
Speaker:I believe that it's the small and consistent actions that
Speaker:compound to deliver results. Loyalty, repeat visits
Speaker:and increased basket size. Now I've just mentioned
Speaker:loyalty. Let's look a little bit more in depth in loyalty, I
Speaker:think. Absolutely, and it always has been that loyalty in 2026 is
Speaker:emotional and people do tend to stick with brands that make
Speaker:them feel seen and solve their problems,
Speaker:deliver what they expect and deliver consistently.
Speaker:I would say that the point schemes alone, that's
Speaker:old hat, saturated, dead in the water. What really
Speaker:works well when it comes to loyalty are frictionless perks.
Speaker:Personalised offers, things like a birthday treat,
Speaker:gamification, if you think about Lidl, spin the wheel, McDonald's,
Speaker:Monopoly, they're all little moments of joy. They're
Speaker:easy, reassuring and rewarding
Speaker:and that's what people appreciate. Points almost
Speaker:feel like you're being held to ransom, whereas moments of
Speaker:joy make it a pleasure to go to a business.
Speaker:And one of the things that I feel is very important in 2026
Speaker:is how ethics and sustainability
Speaker:tie into people's emotional connection to a business.
Speaker:We're Seeing more and more of the repair market.
Speaker:I mean I think about the repair shop, how popular that is on tv,
Speaker:the pre loved upcycling type stuff, rental
Speaker:models so that you can dip in and out of things like phone
Speaker:handsets and TVs and so on, back as it used to be in the 70s
Speaker:and 80s. And refill models, shops where you turn up with your
Speaker:own jar or container and can take home
Speaker:anything from bubble bath to lentils. All of those
Speaker:models are rising because customers seem to want to do the right thing.
Speaker:They do seem to want to be loyal to the brands that make it as
Speaker:easy as possible for them to do the right thing. The other thing to
Speaker:consider is how people are becoming increasingly mindful
Speaker:to things like packaging. So minimal,
Speaker:recyclable, biodegradable packaging matters too,
Speaker:as long as it obviously protects product integrity. And retailers
Speaker:who get all of this right in 2026 are going to win loyalty
Speaker:almost without trying. Another area where
Speaker:there's always a lot of noise and fear and
Speaker:the pace of change is extreme is around
Speaker:tech. Things like AI, smart
Speaker:EPoS systems, click and collect, email automation,
Speaker:electronic lockers for your click and collect. They're all really
Speaker:useful, but only if they save time or boost sales.
Speaker:I don't think any business has the time nor cash to
Speaker:adopt tech for just the hype. Now there is one non
Speaker:negotiable and that's cybersecurity. Obviously 2025 was a hell
Speaker:of a wake up call because Rolls Royce M and S co op and
Speaker:others were all hit with massive cyber incidences
Speaker:and that created massive losses, reduction in profits and
Speaker:an impact on trust. Retailers have got to really
Speaker:make sure that they've got very secure systems in
Speaker:order to protect the trust of the customers who are arguably
Speaker:sharing a lot of their personal data, particularly for online
Speaker:transactions, and they don't want that compromised. But when
Speaker:it comes to tech as a whole, pick one thing and do it
Speaker:well, then expand. Because
Speaker:functional is always going to be flashy and
Speaker:tech should be there to free up your people to do what
Speaker:humans do best, which is connect,
Speaker:deliver a customer experience, sell and troubleshoot.
Speaker:AI may well be useful to do
Speaker:things like seasonal planning or forecasting or stock
Speaker:profiling, but it's never going to replace a
Speaker:smile and a thank you card in a bag when a customer's spent
Speaker:with you. Speaking of people
Speaker:smiling, another key theme I feel is important is sticking
Speaker:staffing and culture. Because staffing in 2026,
Speaker:especially if you take into account the last two budgets, is costing you
Speaker:more than ever before. So having
Speaker:heard a very interesting talk a few years back from
Speaker:a senior director at Pret A Manger, he said
Speaker:higher for attitude. Everything else can be taught.
Speaker:So I think my take is go with this higher for attitude
Speaker:and experience because experience does have huge value.
Speaker:But look for people who've got the humor, resilience
Speaker:and dedication that working in consumer facing
Speaker:businesses across retail, hospitality, leisure, personal care, visitor economy.
Speaker:That's what they need then train for. Skill
Speaker:teams need three essential ingredients. They need to know how to
Speaker:actively sell without being pushy, active and
Speaker:ethically. Let's say they need digital confidence because they need to be able to
Speaker:interact with systems and they need emotional intelligence. They
Speaker:need to be able to understand customers and potentially to diffuse tricky
Speaker:situations should they arise. Staff loyalty
Speaker:is emotional too and there's huge turnover in the industry at the minute and it's
Speaker:really difficult to employ people despite increasing salaries. People
Speaker:just feel like with what's going on with the way
Speaker:consumers are behaving and actually the retail trust have been running a
Speaker:campaign in the back end of 2025 about how we should
Speaker:treat retail staff because the retail crime and the retail abuse had gone up
Speaker:to the point where nobody wanted to work there anymore. But staff loyalty is
Speaker:emotional. So if an employer is fair, communicates
Speaker:openly, has flexibility regarding shift patterns and
Speaker:offers quality career support, then that will lead to
Speaker:happy staff. It goes without saying that happy staff lead to happy
Speaker:customers. I guess it's simple maths and a good
Speaker:culture is a retention tool and your competitive
Speaker:advantage. I want to look a little ahead again, a little bit
Speaker:of hope and perspective. I'm quite
Speaker:bullish about the value add of independence in our high streets, but
Speaker:also the importance of chains as anchors. And a
Speaker:nice equilibrium between independence and chain
Speaker:retail and all the other service providers in a high street gives that
Speaker:overall service offering for a place
Speaker:that makes people want to go there. But you see the thing with independents is
Speaker:they can innovate much faster than chains because things don't have to go to
Speaker:decision by committee or go through finance approvals or
Speaker:anything else. If you're an owner operator, you just decide and you can
Speaker:create experiences that algorithms can't and
Speaker:communities still want. Real places populated
Speaker:by the stalwarts of the high street alongside
Speaker:the really personal innovative brands, whether that be
Speaker:retail, personal care or visitor experience
Speaker:hospitality. It's about knowing the customer and being
Speaker:able to have that hyperlocal edge because as an
Speaker:independent, your hyper local knowledge is gold dust. Knowing your
Speaker:customers because you've embedded yourself in the community, you probably live
Speaker:near to where you work. Chances are, if you've got kids that they go
Speaker:to school with the kids of some of your customers and you can tell your
Speaker:story and be connected and be involved.
Speaker:And whilst the big players probably have deep pockets and can scale,
Speaker:you know, head office, make decisions, they don't live
Speaker:where the stores operate. They live in ivory towers.
Speaker:It's a little bit harsh, but it's not necessarily
Speaker:unfair. So the edge for independence is your hyperlocal
Speaker:knowledge. Use it. Recently
Speaker:somebody asked me for a blog. How would you describe
Speaker:retail as a movie in 2026?
Speaker:So, for a bit of fun, let's answer that. I was thinking
Speaker:it's an epic, like Lord of the Rings, relentless, full
Speaker:of surprises and wrong turns. There's a few dragons along the way.
Speaker:Or maybe it's Mission Impossible. Plot twists,
Speaker:broken systems, miracles expected. But you
Speaker:know the one that I chose in the end for 2026? It's Jerry
Speaker:Maguire. You have to tear up the old playbook,
Speaker:rebuild loyalty and values. And yeah, the star's
Speaker:gonna have to be Tom Cruise, because in retail, we're all always doing our own
Speaker:stunts. One piece of advice I wish
Speaker:every retailer could potentially tattoo on their forearm.
Speaker:If it doesn't pay, it doesn't stay back to
Speaker:basics. Range pricing, promotions, experience,
Speaker:loyalty and good marketing. That is a survival kit.
Speaker:You don't need gimmicks, you just need to be good. And
Speaker:you just need to be better than the next best competition.
Speaker:So that's my take on retail trends for 2026. It's about the
Speaker:environment you're trading in, what to focus on, what to watch and how to avoid
Speaker:getting left behind. If you'd like to talk about trading performance, margins, revenue
Speaker:rangers, buying plans, pricing strategy, promotional calendars, what else?
Speaker:Lifecycle management or operational plans for 2026,
Speaker:please give me a shout. I mean, that's what we do with our
Speaker:clients, day in, day out. And after all, we all know
Speaker:that Planning for Christmas 2026
Speaker:starts in January. I'm Claire Bailey, the retail champion and
Speaker:this has been retail reckoning. Yeah, we serve
Speaker:retail reckoning. No space for
Speaker:dusty shelves
Speaker:owns the floor.
