Heritage won't save you! The retail September reality check
September isn’t just the end of summer. It’s retail’s reset button. In this episode, I, Clare Bailey, The Retail Champion, am talking you through why September is the real starting gun for quarter four.
From the back-to-uni boom to freshers’ week loyalty grabs, and Halloween’s shaky baskets, the signs are everywhere: heritage alone won’t protect the High Street.
Woolworths, Debenhams, Claire’s Accessories, River Island — all proof that nostalgia can’t compete with fast-moving consumer behaviour.
I'll break down the mood, the numbers, and the brutal truth: if you’re not ruthlessly relevant, quarter four will eat you alive.
Mentioned in this episode:
Transcript
Retail Reckoning Episode four Sept 22 Clare: [00:00:00] As we enter Quarter
Speaker:Four, the golden season for retail, we have to understand that heritage
Speaker:is no shield, Woolworths, Debenhams, even WH Smiths. What's going on? What
Speaker:has to happen is a reality check for the High Street. September's
Speaker:the wake-up call and it's disguised as a fresh start. School shoes
Speaker:are now replacing the sandals. The summer vibes are going away, and
Speaker:the Quarter Four alarm clock is deafening. Today what I want to
Speaker:do is unpack why this month is a psychological reset, what the
Speaker:back-to-uni need tells us about customer behavior and how September forecast Christmas.
Speaker:We also want to look at why Heritage isn't a ticket to
Speaker:relevance because recently in the last month we've seen real issues with
Speaker:Claire's accessories and River Island, and they needed a reality check in
Speaker:2025 and potentially do so let's first start with the mood check.
Speaker:I always like to start these with the [00:01:00] consumer mood check
Speaker:and review some stats. It was reported on BBC breakfast on the
Speaker:20th of August, that UK inflation is back up to 3.8% and
Speaker:that is a problem. However, prior to that, consumer confidence was in
Speaker:fact climbing because the Bank of England had cut base rates. The
Speaker:GFK index was steady and the savings index was the strongest since
Speaker:2007, according to the times and the financial times. We've yet to
Speaker:see the impact of this inflation rise in the reports of that
Speaker:sort of land in terms of spending, discretionary spending did fall. If
Speaker:you look at the Barclay card stats, it slipped by 1.8% even
Speaker:though retail sales bounced in July by 2.5%, and that was partly
Speaker:due to the Euro's hype and the sunny weather. So what does
Speaker:this all mean? I think it means that consumers feel safer but
Speaker:are remaining cautious. Careful spending and value seeking behaviors [00:02:00] dominate, reflecting
Speaker:back on what we've talked about in previous episodes about value, but
Speaker:the thing is this inflation number that was reported only a month
Speaker:ago really does have to kick in and show different facts, and
Speaker:those facts won't be available to us probably until the end of
Speaker:September. So we'll have to wait and see. So what would I
Speaker:say about this in terms of the consumer mood check? I think
Speaker:you have to make sure that your offers are transparent, attractive, and
Speaker:built for people who plan how they're spending every pound, bundles, loyalty,
Speaker:incentives, and messaging that matches sort of the real buying behavior and
Speaker:how people wanna shop. Today is super important. August and early September.
Speaker:Insights really do tell us which categories are under pressure, so promotions
Speaker:can be adjusted accordingly. The other big thing is back to uni,
Speaker:there's big [00:03:00] baskets and fast decisions apparently, and we've yet to
Speaker:see the figures as the time of recording. Back to uni spend
Speaker:should be around 800 million. That's epic. If you are a retailer
Speaker:that sells anything that a student could possibly want, then you need
Speaker:to make sure you are on this. It's students and parents prioritizing
Speaker:utility over fluffiness, good bundles, durable basics, not gimmicks. Also, an interesting
Speaker:stat is that sub-£500 gadgets. Held their own in demand, high spec
Speaker:refurbished devices such as an iPhone 12, which arguably is a lesser
Speaker:model than the prevailing ones currently. But being that they're available for
Speaker:as low as 14 pounds, make them a really attractive option for
Speaker:students who want quality and they do want to break the bank.
Speaker:Also, when you look at things, like the comparison websites, there's very
Speaker:[00:04:00] little difference really in terms of specification between tech over different
Speaker:models, unless you are moving two to three years. So actually to
Speaker:pick up an iPhone twelve, £214 isn't a bad choice for a
Speaker:student. The other thing that's come out really well is the prevalence
Speaker:of Click and collect, and I've talked about that before as well.
Speaker:But if you've got click and collect and you're near campus, that
Speaker:is an absolute game changer for speed and convenience. Not to forget
Speaker:that hospitality gets an early September into mid-September influx, thanks to returning
Speaker:students and their parents wanting to stay over and help the kids
Speaker:move in. So these are some of the trends, but I couldn't
Speaker:believe that back to uni is worth 800 million pounds. That just
Speaker:seems insane. But then again, a lot of kids are making that
Speaker:choice. There aren't many apprenticeships available. The governments change the rules around
Speaker:apprenticeships and funding. So perhaps it isn't unexpected that this is a
Speaker:growing trend and maybe we'll continue to be for the next couple
Speaker:of [00:05:00] years. We also need to look at what students are
Speaker:spending. Nat West have got a living index and apparently 64% of
Speaker:students are working part-time, so Well that makes sense really, doesn't it?
Speaker:Because. Despite what they might get as a student loan, they're still
Speaker:juggling work and study and it's limiting their disposable income in general.
Speaker:So they're making very budget conscious choices and getting the essentials is
Speaker:their priority. And we'll see discretionary online shopping dropping. Not to say
Speaker:that there isn't a channel shift as well. Students are using platforms
Speaker:like Amazon or supermarket, click and collect, and I mean, I can
Speaker:reflect on my son. He uses Sainsbury's for his, everyday essentials when
Speaker:it comes to e-commerce and food shopping. And people go, oh, isn't
Speaker:he really well off then? Well, no, because they've got an LD
Speaker:price match. And that's the thing. He's maximizing the convenience and the
Speaker:value and the quality and making the choices to buy from them
Speaker:rather than having to trek off with a backpack [00:06:00] and carry
Speaker:all his shopping home. But in terms of what this means for
Speaker:the retailers, it's about. Quality bundles that represent value because they've got
Speaker:longevity, not just low price, fast fulfillment. And it's not just about
Speaker:impulse, it's about making it easy to choose your products. So the
Speaker:practical advice or takeaways that I can perhaps suggest for this is
Speaker:you've got to offer the bundles that require a mixture of value
Speaker:and convenience. So tech and accessories. Pantry and essentials for student flats.,
Speaker:A herb rock, something like that, or a kitchen set, but that
Speaker:must last at least a year. It can't be absolute cheap rubbish
Speaker:that gets thrown away within three months. The other thing is leveraging
Speaker:click and collect and fast delivery. So either being near campus, offering
Speaker:e lockers where people can pick up their [00:07:00] goods. And perhaps
Speaker:partnering with local delivery options will give a competitive edge. It's making
Speaker:it as simple as possible because there's relatively limited parking outside halls
Speaker:of residence. I know this from personal experience. You've got about five
Speaker:minutes to dump your kid in all of their stuff before the
Speaker:police come and stick a ticket on your car. So you've got
Speaker:to be able to provide as near as possible access. And then
Speaker:also it could be about tailoring the messaging to student priorities, affordability,
Speaker:durability, speed. That's much more important to them than a quick flash
Speaker:sale or a seasonal gimmick. And I think if your store isn't
Speaker:on their radar through Amazon style, convenience, and let's, let's all face
Speaker:it, Amazon do have the edge globally on the word of convenience
Speaker:because same day, next day delivery. The only other places that can
Speaker:compete with that is when I talked about it in one of
Speaker:my earlier podcasts. I need a paddling pool. [00:08:00] The weather's hot
Speaker:and I want it right now. Other than that, they're probably the
Speaker:go-to for most people. And if you aren't offering the Amazon style
Speaker:convenience, people go elsewhere. And whether it's food or tech, they're not
Speaker:just comparing prices, they're wanting fast delivery, delivery. And uh, that's the
Speaker:reality today. Linking to the students, we've got the freshers effect. Fresher
Speaker:week is quite highly volatile, but cafes, pubs and fast casual dining
Speaker:venues really increase trade in fresher week. And of course, depending on
Speaker:the university, fresher week, can anywhere, can be anywhere from the early
Speaker:part of September, right through to the early part of October. Lots
Speaker:of retailers are running one pound tasters, student promos and so on.
Speaker:It's all about loyalty hooks and creating longer term attraction. So giving
Speaker:away now might keep them coming back for their entire [00:09:00] three
Speaker:or four years of their degree or however long they stay there.
Speaker:So I wouldn't normally advocate very low price discounts, but for freshest
Speaker:week for students, I probably would because. Win them over now win
Speaker:the hearts and minds and you may have a customer for at
Speaker:least the lifetime that they stay in the city. So my advice
Speaker:would be get the loyalty early. Use whatever platforms are available. Deliveroo,
Speaker:just eat whatever or your own loyalty schemes to engage with them
Speaker:and offer special offers. Use promotions that can turn the short-term spikes
Speaker:into long-term relationships. Capture their data, get their email addresses, and make
Speaker:sure you market to them effectively through the lifetime of their period.
Speaker:In university, they're not gonna leave the town. They may leave the
Speaker:halls of residence, but they'll go somewhere else and they'll still want
Speaker:to order a pizza. I now want to reflect on the signals
Speaker:we've seen from August and early September. [00:10:00] Halloween went on the
Speaker:shelves quite early, but the basket size wasn't as high as it
Speaker:has been in the past, and I think that is partly to
Speaker:do with what we talked about earlier in this episode, which is
Speaker:consumer confidence and spending power and inflation and so on. But what's
Speaker:important is traffic has increased. Conversions have lagged. So what can we
Speaker:do about that? I feel that analyzing your August and September data
Speaker:for category trends and looking at what stock and promotions need to
Speaker:be in place by, well, in the next couple of weeks, quite
Speaker:frankly, before we hit Halloween, is really, really important. And I would
Speaker:suggest that the trends that we see now are potentially a Quarter
Speaker:Four blueprint, so we have to preempt the hesitation of consumers with
Speaker:clear messaging. And help them with frictionless shopping. Make everything as transparent
Speaker:as possible and give them the confidence to part with [00:11:00] the
Speaker:cash. Another thing we've seen in the last few weeks is something,
Speaker:again, of a high street reality check. Heritage is no protection in
Speaker:modern times. If we all look back to, what, 15 odd years
Speaker:ago? Maybe more? No, it's more than that actually. Gosh, I'm old.
Speaker:Woolworths that's gone. Debenhams gone. WH Smiths rebranded. They've been sold to
Speaker:Modela t and rebranded as TJ Jones, which are kind of, the
Speaker:people behind Hobby Craft. But obviously W eight Smith does still exist
Speaker:in the trouble hubs where they make a lot of money. Claire's
Speaker:accessories fell into administration Hobbycraft, despite the investment in WH Smiths through
Speaker:their investments. They've shut nine more stores and River Island is downsizing
Speaker:fast. I mean, these are high street stole walks. So we've got
Speaker:a bit of a reality check, reality check, and I think the
Speaker:key messaging behind this is Legacy [00:12:00] alone won't save you relevance
Speaker:with your customer will. Claire's accessories was selling historically when I was
Speaker:a kid to an 11-year-old or a 13-year-old. Me now that same
Speaker:child is seven. And they don't buy online and they haven't got
Speaker:the flexibility to go out shopping alone. But furthermore, we have to
Speaker:take into account the fact that Primark is able to sell everything
Speaker:that Claire's did, along with a nice T-shirt and some funky bedding
Speaker:and a fluffy key ring. All the, all the nonsense that young
Speaker:girls wanna buy, quite frankly, so they haven't kept pace with competition.
Speaker:And I would say River Island probably is also a victim of
Speaker:Primark because their product is possibly ever so slightly overpriced. So the
Speaker:customer relevance is constantly a topic. I bring up Debenhams. It was
Speaker:beginning to look more like lock-ups. You know, I don't say it,
Speaker:but, uh, somebody [00:13:00] might have popped out and asked where their
Speaker:cat was. And the fact of the matter is, we've seen it
Speaker:with House of Fraser. We've seen it with various retailers. They've become
Speaker:tired and out of date, and no longer appealing to the customer
Speaker:base who's looking for something very, very different. reinventing the customer experience
Speaker:and staying compulsively obsessed by what the customer wants is really, really
Speaker:important in the modern world. Also things like tracking the changing footfall.
Speaker:Are the locations even viable anymore? Customer behavior that links to the
Speaker:experience and localized trends. And then pivoting the offer or the messaging
Speaker:to reflect what shoppers need now, because it's not the same as
Speaker:it was even probably five minutes ago, let alone five years ago.
Speaker:So in terms of what retailers need to do, they kind of
Speaker:need a little bit of a, a toolkit. When it comes to
Speaker:bundles, that needs to be smart and clear. They need to dig
Speaker:into the data. What's [00:14:00] changed and what stuck, and how does
Speaker:that inform the golden quarter, Quarter Four, and be agile? What worked
Speaker:in last December and November may not work now. So my advice
Speaker:would be to build flexible operational and promotional plans, preempt sales spikes.
Speaker:Dips in demands and make sure stock is there to back it
Speaker:up. And we also need to learn from the past. Woolworths depended
Speaker:on nostalgia. Debenhams trusted in scale. Smith's replied on Smith's, relied on
Speaker:their branding, and River Island was all about the trend, but none
Speaker:of them were adaptable. So it's more about tracking trends, actively adjusting
Speaker:quickly, and don't assume the past strategies are going to influence the
Speaker:future. August and September, don't warm you up. It writes your quarter
Speaker:full script. You've gotta get it right. If you can do an
Speaker:encore of last year, that's great, but if you [00:15:00] coast, you're
Speaker:probably gonna burn out. I suggest. Ruthlessly, review what your customer's needs
Speaker:and wants are and make sure that you are relevant and on
Speaker:point for the coming season. I'm Claire Bailey, the retail champion, and
Speaker:you've been listening to Retail Reckoning.
